PIB según Goldman Sachs (ene 2011)
Podrían los BRICS inaugurar una nueva era de la India ?
14 de Sep de 2013 Por Abhismita Sen
Después de decepcionanse a sí misma por décadas, la India está ahora en el punto de convertirse en una gran potencia. El mundo comenzó a darse cuenta de la subida de la India cuando Nueva Delhi firmó un pacto nuclear con el presidente George W. Bush en julio de 2005 , pero ese avance es sólo una dimensión de la transformación dramática de la política exterior de India , que ha ocurrido desde la fin de la Guerra Fría. Después de más de medio siglo de intentos fallidos y potencial no concretado, la India está emergiendo como el estado clave en el equilibrio global de poder. En los próximos años, tendrá la oportunidad de dar forma a los resultados en los temas más críticos del siglo XXI: la construcción de la estabilidad de Asia , la modernización política del gran Medio Oriente, y la gestión de la globalización.
El ardiente deseo de la India, de obtener un asiento permanente en el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, ha comenzado agravante, ya que la decisión está al borde de la declaración. Al ser un fuerte aspirante para el puesto, la India ha mostrado buena disposición y voluntad de trabajar por la reforma del núcleo de decisiones de la ONU, junto con otras naciones, con el fin de mantenerse en el cambiante escenario.
India ha sido, históricamente, parte de los países no alineados. Si se trataba de una ideología o una estrategia o de ambos, pueden ser objeto de debate. El interés nacional de la India, fue no verse envuelta en las rivalidades de la Guerra Fría. Su interés era mantener buenas relaciones con los países de ambos bloques y obtener los beneficios de ambos, cosa que hizo.
En los últimos años, la India ha tenido consistentemente altas tasas de crecimiento y mejora constante en el desarrollo humano. Se estima que la India superará a Japón en términos de PIB, para el año 2020  . En el ámbito internacional, la India es una potencia nuclear. El país es rico en recursos naturales, y la mayoría de la población es educada. También es el mayor exportador del mundo de servicios de software y de trabajadores del software. La India ha sido un miembro de la Organización Mundial del Comercio desde el 1 de enero de 1995 .
BRICS fortalecen al FMI pero piden reformas
19 Junio, 2012 - AFP
Los países emergentes anunciaron en el G20 millonarias contribuciones para aumentar la capacidad del FMI de prestar a países en crisis, un paso que les deja en posición de fuerza para exigir reformas en la gobernanza económica mundial.
Con Europa sumida en una crisis que no le da tregua, casi un tercio de los 456,000 millones de dólares que el FMI logró reunir para su cortafuegos anticrisis provienen de naciones emergentes. Y el porcentaje previsiblemente aumentará.
Entre estas naciones, el mayor contribuyente a este fondo conjunto que permitirá dar créditos a naciones en problemas, es China, que el lunes precisó su aporte: 43,000 millones de dólares.
Brasil comprometió 10,000 millones de dólares; otro tanto aportará Rusia e igual monto pondrá India. Sudáfrica, que completa con China el grupo BRICS de naciones emergentes, aportará 2,000 millones.
Otros emergentes que aportaron fueron Corea del Sur (15,000 millones de dólares), México (10,000 millones de dólares), Turquía (5,000 millones), o Colombia (1,500 millones).
La directora gerente del FMI, Christine Lagarde, quien hizo campaña por esta iniciativa, se mostró satisfecha con el resultado.
Will BRICS usher a new Indian Era?
Sep 14, 2013 Posted by TIE by Abhismita Sen
After disappointing itself for decades, India is now on the verge of becoming a great power. The world started to take notice of India’s rise when New Delhi signed a nuclear pact with President George W. Bush in July 2005 , but that breakthrough is only one dimension of the dramatic transformation of Indian foreign policy that has taken place since the end of the Cold War. After more than a half century of false starts and unrealized potential, India is now emerging as the swing state in the global balance of power. In the coming years, it will have an opportunity to shape outcomes on the most critical issues of the twenty-first century: the construction of Asian stability, the political modernization of the greater Middle East, and the management of globalization.
The burning desire of India of gaining a permanent seat at the UN Security Council has started aggravating, as the decision is on the verge of declaration. Being a strong aspirant for the position, India has shown readiness and willingness to work for the reformation of the top UN decision making body, along with other nations, in order to keep up with the changing scenario.
India has been historically non-aligned. Whether it was an ideology or a strategy or both can be debated. It did not suit India’s national interest to get embroiled in Cold War rivalries. Its interest was to maintain good relations with countries from both blocs and get benefits from both, which it did.
In recent years, India has enjoyed consistently high rates of growth and steady improvement in human development, it is estimated that and India would overtake Japan in terms of economic aggregate (GDP) by 2020 . On the international stage, India is a nuclear power. The country is rich in natural resources and a majority of the population is educated. It is also the biggest exporter in the world of software services and software workers. India has been a World Trade Organization member since 1 January 1995 ,
In 2001, Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neil first dubbed the four nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China as the BRIC . Goldman Sachs has argued that, since the four BRIC countries are developing rapidly, by 2050 their combined economies could eclipse the combined economies of the current richest countries of the world . The BRIC thesis recognizes that Brazil, Russia, India and Chinahave changed their political systems to embrace global capitalism. Goldman Sachs predicts that China and India, respectively, will become the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services, while Brazil and Russia will become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. With the inclusion of South Africa in 2010, the group was renamed BRICS – with the “S” standing for South Africa – to reflect the group’s expanded membership .
As of 2013, the five BRICS countries represent almost 3 billion people, with a combined nominal GDP of US $14.9 trillion, and an estimated US $4 trillion in combined foreign reserves . BRICS account for over 40% of the world’s population .
India is an active BRICS member, since its creation. The 2012 BRICS summit was hosted by India. The theme of the summit was “BRICS Partnership for Global Stability, Security and Prosperity”. The idea for setting up a developmental bank was put forward by India, as a sign of firming its power of the group and increasing its influence in global decision-making. India and China launched the “India-China Friendship and Cooperation” year in the summit.
The Goldman Sachs global economics team released a follow-up report to its initial BRIC study in 2004 . According to the report, first China and then a decade later India will begin to dominate the world economy. The report also highlights India’s great inefficiency in energy use.
India and Russia established a strategic partnership in 2000, signaling their mutual desire to put the bilateral relationship back on track after it drifted during the westward lurch of the Yeltsin presidency. For India, Russia is important for obtaining assured access to advanced defense equipment. It is important for maintaining a balance in India’s foreign policy, especially when, with the vast improvement of India’s relations with the US, the growing perception in Russia is that India has become too west leaning. A strong Russia is also important for maintaining a balance in the global system. Neither a unipolar world nor one in which China is the biggest beneficiary of Russia’s declining status suits India.
In the 21st century trajectory of Sino-Indian relations depend on US policy towards India, and on whether Washington will accept Delhi as a global power with the same privileges as France and Britain. India-China relations are often seen through the prism of their bilateral disputes. Indeed, the border dispute between the two is generally seen as the biggest hurdle to improving ties. India’s growing engagement with Vietnam, and by extension in the South China Sea, is a logical expansion of its Look East Policy (LEP). After decades of effort at containing India by propping up the Pakistan and Bangladesh militaries, Beijing is unlikely to jettison such friends in favor of an India-centric policy in South Asia. China would like to see India retreat into its neighborhood, abandoning the eastward push that was introduced during the 1990s by Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao. It would also like to ensure that a US-India alliance does not form, one that could threaten its drive for primacy in Asia.
China has made tremendous strides in gaining market share in India’s import market in commoditized mass produced products. India needs foreign capital to boost both its manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. China has accumulated huge surplus funds that it must invest abroad and ideally not just in government bonds. Hence, bilateral trade between this duo is not only important but also indispensible for many reasons.
The economy of Latin America grew by 3.1% in 2012, comfortably outstripping global growth of 2.2% . Brazil is world’s sixth largest economy and a founding member of the United Nations, the G20, CPLP, Latin Union, the Organization of Ibero-American States, the Organization of American States, Mercosul and the Union of South American Nations, and is one of the BRIC countries. However, Brazil remains one of the most resourcefully and amenity wise unequal regions in the world. India and Brazil have declared inclusive development an imperative and have engineered creative solutions to meet their developmental challenges, but both also face many obstacles to equitable development some of which can be overcome through mutual learning and targeted bilateral investment. India and Brazil’s growing engagement in Africa shows that both the countries are embracing their roles as global diplomats, policy makers often term which as a ‘south-south’ cooperation.
India lacks oil reserves; Oil is a central commodity shaping the economic relationship between South Africa and India. India has been working hard to nurture its relations with major oil-producing African countries. India also imports coal from South Africa. India has particular knowledge of a range of areas that Africa would benefit from tapping into to help address its food security challenges, including small-farm mechanization.
However, even as the world’s largest democracy, India remained resilient in face of the global economic crisis, the country faces a critical challenge similar to several other BRICS counterparts – high growth has been accompanied by persistent poverty and inequality.
In India, the relationship between structural change, growth and poverty reduction reflects the country’s changing economic policies – from a free trade regime to a relatively closed, protectionist regime following independence in the 1950s until the 1980s, when the country began to move back towards an open, increasingly liberal economic regime.
Overall, India has moved towards scale-based capital-intensive medium-tech industries (low- and high-tech) and away from both labor-intensive low-tech industries and science-based high-tech ones. As far as the relationship between structural change and poverty is concerned, structural change has not been especially conducive to poverty reduction. A large part of employment remains in low productivity agriculture. Reallocation of labor takes place in the direction of the service sector where informal, low-paid employment is quite prevalent. Within manufacturing, the resource and labor-intensive sectors remain the largest employers. A sustained decline of poverty would require a different type of structural change, with greater emphasis on manufacturing and a shift of employment towards more high-tech sectors. Despite a reasonable growth performance of the Indian economy, employment continues to be dominated by low productivity activities. Permanent wage employment only exists for a fraction of workers.
The Reserve Bank of India has been struggling to combat inflation, despite high policy rates. Although India’s investment rate is relatively higher at 35 per cent of GDP, growth in private corporate investment has fallen sharply over the past few quarters due to lack of policy reforms, supply-side bottlenecks and high interest rates. The Government spends too much on welfare spending. Though the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India expanded 1.30 % in the fourth quarter of 2012 over the previous quarter , economic growth rate slowed to around 5.3% for the 2012–13 fiscal year .
There have been a lot of speculations over Indonesia replacing India at the BRICS. Indeed India’s economy has hit a rough spot with the slowest pace of growth in three years with the government unable to deliver on economic reforms. Besides delivering better returns, Indonesia is also catching up with India when it comes to economic growth. Even on trade, Indonesia scores over India. But despite the growing pessimism around India, most experts feel that it is not time yet to write off a country of a billion-plus people, if on nothing else than its sheer size. Some argue that while there is a case for Indonesia to join the BRICS, it should not be at the cost of India as they both have different comparative advantages. While one is a commodity economy, the other is a services oriented one.
India appears to have developed competitive advantages in services due to the availability of a large pool of skilled labor, which the education and technology policies adopted in the early phases of development helped to create. The near stagnant share of manufacturing in the economy makes plain that India did not enjoy similar competitive advantages in the manufacturing sector. A key question has therefore been whether the service sector can continue to be an engine of growth for India. Many argue that this pattern of growth may not be sustainable, given that the manufacturing rather than the service sector has the strongest links to India’s domestic economy overall. Others point out that service-led growth may not be sustainable due to the service sector’s high degree of informality
Since, China has leaped ahead of India, in terms of both economic and military power, it will always function as a towering force in all the BRICS decisions. India’s recently published 12th Plan calls for major investments in infrastructure, health, and education, as well as for continued poverty reduction, but in their report, IMF economists say reforms to facilitate investment—especially in infrastructure—together with lower costs to do business, are key to restoring high growth.
The government has already taken significant steps to restore growth, for example by laying out a plan to cut the losses of local power companies, creating the Cabinet Committee on Investment, and relaxing some restrictions on foreign direct investment. However, more needs to be done. Addressing India’s long-term energy needs, for example, will require solving complicated problems related to coal (which powers most of India’s electricity plants), while easing traffic jams will require facilitating the acquisition of land to widen roads or build new ones.
The government has already moved to lower fuel subsidies, which disproportionately benefit richer people. It will need to do more to free sufficient resources for 12th Plan priorities, including a comprehensive reform of fuel subsidies.
A common response to slow growth is the use of countercyclical fiscal or monetary policy, but this is inappropriate for India. High inflation means there is little room to cut interest rates, while the country’s fiscal deficit (forecast to be 8.7 percent this year—the highest among major emerging markets) means that controlling, rather than raising, spending is a priority.
The share of Foreign Direct Investment flowing into manufacturing in India has declined considerably. The bulk of FDI in India flows into the service sector, in particular financing, real estate and business services.
However, it should be noted BRIC financing has played an important role in alleviating infrastructure bottlenecks in India and helped it tap its natural resources. India’s affordable and adaptable systems are replicable for other emerging systems of the world such as Pakistan and the Middle East, which can emerge as important GDP contributors for India in future
However, as a growing power, India must realize that its rise also depends on the goodwill of the world’s most dominant power. To give just one example, India’s candidacy for permanent membership of the of UN Security Council–or for that matter the Nuclear Suppliers Group–hinges on the active support of the U.S. Second, any strategic vacuum in relations with U.S. could actually backfire on India as the latter gets cozy with China. In such a case, the obvious fallout would be loss of strategic space for India, as China constitutes both a territorial threat and a long-term competitor in terms of influence in Asia.
Today, India faces many challenges. The social class system of castes is still very strong among the population. About one quarter of the population is too poor to afford an adequate diet. Moreover, its overpopulation in certain areas creates massive environmental degradation. India must also face the problem of terrorism. It is for the government to formulate proper reforms to mitigate these issues relevantly.
Abhismita Sen: A postgraduate student of the Jadavpur University-Department of International Relations, Kolkata, West Bengal. Has interned with the Alexis Centre for Public Policy and International Relations on the project- media and (mis) representation of minority groups. Speaks German and French in addition to English, Hindi and Bengali. Won the Winter Spring Writing Competition organized by the Centre for International Relations, International Affairs Forum for authoring the essay “China – Getting Ahead or Losing Ground?” which was published in the summer 2012 issue of the same.
Bajoria Jayshree and Pan Esther, The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal, Council on Foreign Relations, November 5, 2010
HU Angang, FIVE MAJOR SCALE EFFECTS OF CHINA’S RISE ON THE WORLD, China
Policy Institute ,April 2007
World Trade Center members Database, http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/india_e.htm , accessed on 13.03.2013
Tett Gillian, The story of the Brics, FT Magazine, January 15, 2010
Koba Marc, BRICS: CNBC Explains, CNBC database, 11 August 2011 http://www.cnbc.com/id/44006382 , accessed on 13.03.2013
Pulse database, An introduction to BRICS, WINTER 2012, http://inw.org.za/download_files/An%20introduction%20to%20BRICS.pdf accessed on 13.03.2013
FINANCIAL ICEBERG, MARKET INSIGHT, http://www.financialiceberg.com/slowing_bric.html, accessed on 13.03.2013
Structural Change, Poverty Reduction and Industrial Policy in the BRICS, united nations industrial development organization, Vienna, 2012
BRICS GOLDMAN SACHS report http://www.goldmansachs.com/china/index.html , accessed on 13.03.2013
Long Gideon, BBC News Database, Latin America is enjoying the good times at last, 23/1/2013
Trading economics, India GDP Growth Rate, http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth , accessed on 13.03.2013
The economic times, GDP growth at 5.3% for Q4, slowest in 9 years, May 31, 2012 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-05-31/news/31921922_1_gdp-growth-cent-expansion-cent-growth .